asylumstatsFollow the money
East Midlands

Lincoln

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Mr Hamish Falconer
Mr Hamish FalconerLabour · Lincoln
30 people on asylum support in Lincoln

Rank 256 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.9 per 10,000 puts Lincoln in the 32nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 7 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 30 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.2M a year.

What asylum costs Lincoln

£677Kestimated hotel costs/year
£77Ksubsistence payments/year
£36KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 30 people on asylum support in Lincoln(0.03% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Lincoln: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

3
5320Dec 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2019Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20141
Jun 20151
Mar 20171
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Dec 20172
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20183
Mar 20193
Jun 20194
Sept 20195
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Jun 20202
Sept 20204
Dec 20204
Mar 20213
Jun 20213
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20222
Dec 20222
Mar 20232
Jun 20231
Sept 20232
Mar 20252
Jun 20252
Sept 20252
Dec 20253

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+2Change across series
32Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation23
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only7
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
30
Homes for Ukraine
198
Afghan programme
40
Resettlement cumulative
9

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine198
Afghan programme40
Resettlement cumulative9

Population context

All pathways total268
Share of local population0.26%

Ethnic composition projection

Lincoln: White British 82.7% (2021) to 60.5% (2051). 80% CI: 58.7, 65.8%.

Ethnic composition: Lincoln

024477194% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 52% in 2061White Other 23% in 2061Asian 6% in 2061Black 4% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Lincoln

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
89%
2021
83%
9%
2031proj
76%
13%
2041proj
69%
17%
2051proj
60%
20%
2061proj
52%
23%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Lincoln ranges from49.3% to 67.4%by 2051. That is a 18.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 6.7% (2051). Christian 45.5% → 9.3%.

Religion: Lincoln

022436587%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 82% in 2051Muslim 7% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

15.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.38). 90.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Lincoln

1030507090%Census 2021UK-born 55% in 2051Foreign-born 45% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 14.9% moved within UK, 1.2% arrived from abroad
black24.3% internal, 8.7% international
asian19.1% internal, 7.7% international
other15.3% internal, 9.1% international
mixed19.2% internal, 2.9% international
white other14.6% internal, 5% international
white british14.5% internal, 0.3% international

Why Lincoln is changing

-6.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+0.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Lincoln on UK Demographics →