Trend
-58 Latest quarter change
+668 Change across series
48 Official data points
Luton
710 on asylum support. Rank 42 nationally, 1 in East of England. Rate: 29.7 per 10,000 (87th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Luton has 710 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 42 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 29.7 per 10,000 residents places it around the 87th percentile. 366 are in contingency accommodation (51.5% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Luton
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 312
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 32
Contingency accommodation 366
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 249
Afghan programme 89
Resettlement cumulative 3
Population context
All pathways total 1,048
Share of local population 0.44%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Luton: WBI 31.8% (2021) → 3.3% (2051). 80% CI: 4.1–5.3%.
Ethnic composition — Luton
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 35.1% (2021) → 62.8% (2051). Christian 40.3% → 15.4%.
Religion — Luton
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
38.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.81). 76.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Luton
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Luton is changing
-12.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.9%
Mixed 67.7%
White Other 75.1%
Other 62.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 37.3%
White Other 35.2%
Other 41.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.9%
Mixed 30.6%
White Other 28.9%
Other 33.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 40,831 pupils. 14.6% White British. Schools are 17.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
Asian 48.7%
White British 14.6%
White Other 12.9%
Black 12.1%
Mixed 9.1%
Other 2.5%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
85.4% Minority pupils now
92% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
710 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
29.7 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
366 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.