Trend
+1Latest quarter change
+1Change across series
2Official data points
Malvern Hills
Wendy Morton
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Malvern Hills.
7 people on asylum support in Malvern Hills
Rank 310 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.83 per 10,000 puts Malvern Hills in the 16th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 7 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.3M a year.
What asylum costs Malvern Hills
£158Kestimated hotel costs/year
£18Ksubsistence payments/year
£8KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 7 people on asylum support in Malvern Hills(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.
Malvern Hills: asylum numbers still rising
Quarter-end stock series to Sept 2023. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Exact values
| Period | Value |
|---|---|
| Sept 2014 | 1 |
| Sept 2023 | 2 |
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation7
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine417
Afghan programme16
Resettlement cumulative30
Population context
All pathways total440
Share of local population0.52%
Ethnic composition projection
Malvern Hills: White British 93.3% (2021) to 86.9% (2051). 80% CI: 86.8, 89%.
Ethnic composition: Malvern Hills
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Malvern Hills
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Malvern Hills ranges from44.4% to 72.1%by 2051. That is a 27.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 53.3% by 2051
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.4% (2051). Christian 57.5% → 14.6%.
Religion: Malvern Hills
ChristianNo religion
Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.
Nativity
5.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.18). 98.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born: Malvern Hills
UK-bornForeign-born
Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Census 2021 mobility: 8.7% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black17.6% internal, 4.6% international
other13.5% internal, 6.9% international
white other11.1% internal, 3.4% international
mixed12% internal, 1.7% international
asian7.7% internal, 4.1% international
white british8.5% internal, 0.3% international
Why Malvern Hills is changing
-1.8ppWhite British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Malvern Hills on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British55.2%
Mixed63.6%
White Other65.7%
Other60.4%
Homeownership rate
White British73%
Mixed50.4%
White Other54.1%
Other62.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British38.4%
Mixed37.5%
White Other48.5%
Other53.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
7National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
0.83Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.