Trend
+41 Latest quarter change
+249 Change across series
48 Official data points
Medway
252 on asylum support. Rank 124 nationally, 11 in South East. Rate: 8.61 per 10,000 (55th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
2025-12-31 South East region
Summary
Medway has 252 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 124 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 8.61 per 10,000 residents places it around the 55th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Medway
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 243
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 462
Afghan programme 96
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 810
Share of local population 0.28%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Medway: WBI 78.3% (2021) → 39.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2045. 80% CI: 39.5–46%.
Ethnic composition — Medway
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 4.6% (2051). Christian 47.7% → 13.3%.
Religion — Medway
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
13.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 93.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Medway
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Medway is changing
-7.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.2%
Mixed 67.3%
White Other 74.2%
Other 63.7%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.6%
Mixed 54.7%
White Other 49.1%
Other 53.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 24.6%
Mixed 31%
White Other 37%
Other 34.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 50,337 pupils. 62.6% White British. Schools are 15.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.6%
Black 14.4%
Mixed 7.6%
White Other 7.3%
Asian 6.7%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 16pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
37.4% Minority pupils now
49.4% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
252 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
8.61 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.