asylumstatsFollow the money
East Midlands

Melton

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Edward Argar
Edward ArgarConservative · Melton and Syston
16 people on asylum support in Melton

Rank 288 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.93 per 10,000 puts Melton in the 32nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 16 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.6M a year.

What asylum costs Melton

£361Kestimated hotel costs/year
£41Ksubsistence payments/year
£19KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 16 people on asylum support in Melton(0.02% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Melton: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

13
14697490Dec 2022Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Albania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 2022104
Mar 2023144
Jun 2023140
Sept 2023146
Dec 20235
Mar 202426
Jun 202413
Sept 20249
Dec 202410
Mar 202513
Jun 202512
Sept 202515
Dec 202513

Trend

-2Latest quarter change
-91Change across series
13Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation15
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
16
Homes for Ukraine
139
Afghan programme
101
Resettlement cumulative
24

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine139
Afghan programme101
Resettlement cumulative24

Population context

All pathways total256
Share of local population0.47%

Ethnic composition projection

Melton: White British 92.9% (2021) to 68.0% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Melton

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 68% in 2051White Other 10% in 2051Asian 10% in 2051Black 5% in 2051Mixed 3% in 2051Other 4% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Melton

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
93%
2026proj
90%
2031proj
86%
2036proj
81%
2041proj
77%
8%
2046proj
72%
9%
8%
2051proj
68%
10%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Melton ranges from37.3% to 67.0%by 2051. That is a 29.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 46.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.3% (2021) → 1.1% (2051). Christian 56.8% → 13.4%.

Religion: Melton

829496989%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 97.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Melton

126507499%Census 2021UK-born 65% in 2051Foreign-born 35% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.5% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black16.7% internal, 2.1% international
other14.9% internal, 3.7% international
mixed12.9% internal, 1.7% international
asian8.5% internal, 2.5% international
white other8.3% internal, 2.1% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.3% international

Why Melton is changing

-2.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+5.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Melton on UK Demographics →