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Merthyr Tydfil

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Gerald Jones
Gerald JonesLabour · Merthyr Tydfil and Aberdare
54 people on asylum support in Merthyr Tydfil

Rank 229 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.25 per 10,000 puts Merthyr Tydfil in the 60th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 54 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.1M a year.

What asylum costs Merthyr Tydfil

£1.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£138Ksubsistence payments/year
£65KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 54 people on asylum support in Merthyr Tydfil(0.06% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Merthyr Tydfil: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

33
3322110Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20141
Mar 20162
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Mar 20173
Jun 20171
Sept 20171
Mar 20202
Jun 20202
Sept 20202
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20212
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Jun 20233
Sept 20235
Dec 20235
Mar 20245
Jun 20244
Sept 20244
Dec 202415
Mar 202511
Jun 202518
Sept 202522
Dec 202533

Trend

+11Latest quarter change
+32Change across series
27Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation52
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
54
Homes for Ukraine
61
Afghan programme
6
Resettlement cumulative
8

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine61
Afghan programme6
Resettlement cumulative8

Population context

All pathways total121
Share of local population0.21%

Ethnic composition projection

Merthyr Tydfil: White British 93.3% (2021) to 78.6% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Merthyr Tydfil

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 79% in 2051White Other 8% in 2051Asian 6% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsian

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Merthyr Tydfil

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
93%
2026proj
91%
2031proj
89%
2036proj
87%
2041proj
84%
2046proj
81%
2051proj
79%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.8% (2051). Christian 42.3% → 7.6%.

Religion: Merthyr Tydfil

326497296%Census 2021Christian 8% in 2051No religion 91% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

5.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.18). 96.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Merthyr Tydfil

125507599%Census 2021UK-born 70% in 2051Foreign-born 30% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Merthyr Tydfil is changing

-1.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+6.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Merthyr Tydfil on UK Demographics →