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South West

Mid Devon

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sir Mel Stride
Sir Mel StrideConservative · Central Devon

5 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Mid Devon.

0 people on asylum support in Mid Devon

Rank 357 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0 per 10,000 puts Mid Devon in the 4th percentile. That means fewer than most areas.

Mid Devon: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Mar 2023. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

3
5738190Mar 2022Mar 2023Peak Jun 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania deal
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20224
Jun 202257
Sept 20225
Dec 20221
Mar 20233

Trend

+2Latest quarter change
-1Change across series
5Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
0
Homes for Ukraine
359
Afghan programme
25
Resettlement cumulative
13

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine359
Afghan programme25
Resettlement cumulative13

Population context

All pathways total384
Share of local population0.45%

Ethnic composition projection

Mid Devon: White British 93.8% (2021) to 68.4% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Mid Devon

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 68% in 2051White Other 10% in 2051Asian 10% in 2051Black 5% in 2051Mixed 3% in 2051Other 3% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Mid Devon

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
94%
2026proj
90%
2031proj
87%
2036proj
82%
2041proj
78%
9%
2046proj
73%
10%
8%
2051proj
68%
10%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Mid Devon ranges from47.8% to 74.8%by 2051. That is a 27.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.7% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.2% (2021) → 0.1% (2051). Christian 50.5% → 10.4%.

Religion: Mid Devon

527497193%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 88% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.17). 97.3% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Mid Devon

126507499%Census 2021UK-born 65% in 2051Foreign-born 35% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.3% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black23% internal, 1% international
mixed15.1% internal, 1.3% international
asian11.4% internal, 3.9% international
white other11.2% internal, 2.5% international
other10.7% internal, 2.7% international
white british9.1% internal, 0.3% international

Why Mid Devon is changing

-2.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+5.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Mid Devon on UK Demographics →