Trend
+26 Latest quarter change
-120 Change across series
48 Official data points
Middlesbrough
699 on asylum support. Rank 46 nationally, 4 in North East. Rate: 44.76 per 10,000 (96th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 North East region
Summary
Middlesbrough has 699 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 46 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 44.76 per 10,000 residents places it around the 96th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Middlesbrough
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 675
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 24
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 109
Afghan programme 104
Resettlement cumulative 9
Population context
All pathways total 912
Share of local population 0.58%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Middlesbrough: WBI 79.5% (2021) → 43.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2047. 80% CI: 40.2–47.3%.
Ethnic composition — Middlesbrough
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 10.8% (2021) → 13.9% (2051). Christian 48.5% → 7.9%.
Religion — Middlesbrough
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
12.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.44). 92.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Middlesbrough
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Middlesbrough is changing
-6.5ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.6%
Mixed 59.4%
White Other 61.8%
Other 44%
Homeownership rate
White British 57.2%
Mixed 40.2%
White Other 29.3%
Other 18.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 30.4%
White Other 30%
Other 27.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 25,551 pupils. 65.5% White British. Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 65.5%
Asian 12.1%
Black 7.5%
Mixed 6.2%
White Other 4.5%
Other 4.3%
What this means
Schools are 14pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
34.5% Minority pupils now
46.9% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
699 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
44.76 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.