Trend
+53 Latest quarter change
+378 Change across series
48 Official data points
Milton Keynes
387 on asylum support. Rank 93 nationally, 5 in South East. Rate: 12.65 per 10,000 (62nd percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
2025-12-31 South East region
Summary
Milton Keynes has 387 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 93 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 12.65 per 10,000 residents places it around the 62nd percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Milton Keynes
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 378
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 9
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 609
Afghan programme 157
Resettlement cumulative 85
Population context
All pathways total 1,153
Share of local population 0.38%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Milton Keynes: WBI 62.2% (2021) → 11.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2030. 80% CI: 17.6–21.6%.
Ethnic composition — Milton Keynes
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 7.6% (2021) → 17.4% (2051). Christian 45.4% → 16.9%.
Religion — Milton Keynes
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
25.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.66). 87.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Milton Keynes
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Milton Keynes is changing
-11.7ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 70.8%
White Other 81.9%
Other 68.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.3%
Mixed 47.5%
White Other 44.4%
Other 47.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.8%
Mixed 35.3%
White Other 42.6%
Other 44.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 51,189 pupils. 43.8% White British. Schools are 18.4pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 43.8%
Asian 19.1%
Black 15.3%
White Other 10.7%
Mixed 9.6%
Other 1.6%
What this means
Schools are 18pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
56.2% Minority pupils now
74.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
387 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
12.65 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South East by supported asylum.