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South East

Mole Valley

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Linsey Farnsworth
Linsey FarnsworthLabour · Amber Valley

10 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Mole Valley.

1 people on asylum support in Mole Valley

Rank 342 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.11 per 10,000 puts Mole Valley in the 6th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.0M a year.

What asylum costs Mole Valley

£23Kestimated hotel costs/year
£3Ksubsistence payments/year
£1KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1 people on asylum support in Mole Valley(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Mole Valley: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1
236157790Sept 2016Dec 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20161
Sept 20171
Dec 20171
Jun 20191
Sept 20193
Dec 20193
Mar 20203
Jun 20203
Sept 20203
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20211
Dec 2021109
Mar 202221
Jun 20228
Sept 202226
Dec 2022215
Mar 2023236
Jun 2023177
Sept 2023215
Jun 20241
Mar 20251
Dec 20251

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+0Change across series
24Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1
Homes for Ukraine
341
Afghan programme
18
Resettlement cumulative
45

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine341
Afghan programme18
Resettlement cumulative45

Population context

All pathways total360
Share of local population0.41%

Ethnic composition projection

Mole Valley: White British 85.8% (2021) to 71.5% (2051). 80% CI: 71.1, 75%.

Ethnic composition: Mole Valley

024487195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 64% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 4% in 2061Mixed 14% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Mole Valley

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
86%
2031proj
82%
8%
2041proj
77%
10%
2051proj
71%
11%
9%
2061proj
64%
12%
14%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Mole Valley ranges from43.1% to 66.1%by 2051. That is a 23pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 50.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.3% (2021) → 2.5% (2051). Christian 55.7% → 16.3%.

Religion: Mole Valley

1130486685%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 80% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.33). 96.3% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Mole Valley

729507193%Census 2021UK-born 47% in 2051Foreign-born 53% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black18.2% internal, 2.3% international
other12.1% internal, 3.1% international
white other11.9% internal, 2.5% international
mixed12.5% internal, 1.5% international
asian9.5% internal, 2.3% international
white british7.8% internal, 0.4% international

Why Mole Valley is changing

-4.3pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+2.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Mole Valley on UK Demographics →