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South East

New Forest

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Neil Hudson
Dr Neil HudsonConservative · Epping Forest

6 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping New Forest.

7 people on asylum support in New Forest

Rank 311 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.4 per 10,000 puts New Forest in the 11th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 7 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.3M a year.

What asylum costs New Forest

£158Kestimated hotel costs/year
£18Ksubsistence payments/year
£8KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 7 people on asylum support in New Forest(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

New Forest: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

2
2110Sept 2017Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Bibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20171
Dec 20171
Mar 20181
Sept 20231
Mar 20251
Jun 20251
Sept 20251
Dec 20252

Trend

+1Latest quarter change
+1Change across series
8Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation7
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
7
Homes for Ukraine
457
Afghan programme
29
Resettlement cumulative
9

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine457
Afghan programme29
Resettlement cumulative9

Population context

All pathways total493
Share of local population0.28%

Ethnic composition projection

New Forest: White British 93.2% (2021) to 85.7% (2051).

Ethnic composition: New Forest

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 81% in 2061White Other 8% in 2061Mixed 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: New Forest

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
93%
2031proj
92%
2041proj
89%
2051proj
86%
2061proj
81%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in New Forest ranges from60.2% to 80.2%by 2051. That is a 20pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 67.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.3% (2051). Christian 55.0% → 13.5%.

Religion: New Forest

929497090%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 85% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 98% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: New Forest

226507498%Census 2021UK-born 75% in 2051Foreign-born 26% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.3% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
other14.6% internal, 2% international
white other13% internal, 2.2% international
black11.9% internal, 2% international
mixed11% internal, 1% international
asian9.4% internal, 2.4% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.3% international

Why New Forest is changing

-1.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+5.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View New Forest on UK Demographics →