asylumstatsFollow the money
West Midlands

Newcastle-under-Lyme

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Adam Jogee
Adam JogeeLabour · Newcastle-under-Lyme
192 people on asylum support in Newcastle-under-Lyme

Rank 139 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 14.99 per 10,000 puts Newcastle-under-Lyme in the 71st percentile. That means this area carries more than most. 8 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 192 people at £107 per person per day is about £7.5M a year.

What asylum costs Newcastle-under-Lyme

£4.3Mestimated hotel costs/year
£491Ksubsistence payments/year
£230KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 192 people on asylum support in Newcastle-under-Lyme(0.21% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Newcastle-under-Lyme: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

161
161107540Jun 2016Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20162
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Mar 20172
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Dec 20172
Mar 20182
Jun 20182
Sept 20182
Dec 20181
Jun 20194
Sept 20204
Dec 20204
Mar 20214
Sept 20212
Dec 20211
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20222
Dec 20222
Mar 20231
Jun 20235
Sept 20237
Dec 202313
Mar 202425
Jun 202447
Sept 202479
Dec 202492
Mar 2025133
Jun 2025134
Sept 2025150
Dec 2025161

Trend

+11Latest quarter change
+159Change across series
33Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation184
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only8
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
192
Homes for Ukraine
160
Afghan programme
10
Resettlement cumulative
21

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine160
Afghan programme10
Resettlement cumulative21

Population context

All pathways total362
Share of local population0.28%

Ethnic composition projection

Newcastle-under-Lyme: White British 90.0% (2021) to 77.0% (2051). 80% CI: 76, 80.1%.

Ethnic composition: Newcastle-under-Lyme

025497498% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 71% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Asian 9% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Newcastle-under-Lyme

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
90%
2031proj
87%
2041proj
82%
2051proj
77%
2061proj
71%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Newcastle-under-Lyme ranges from53.3% to 73.6%by 2051. That is a 20.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.9% (2021) → 4.1% (2051). Christian 55.0% → 14.1%.

Religion: Newcastle-under-Lyme

021436485%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 80% in 2051Muslim 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.26). 96.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Newcastle-under-Lyme

226507498%Census 2021UK-born 75% in 2051Foreign-born 25% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.1% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black26% internal, 5% international
asian19% internal, 2.5% international
other14% internal, 4.8% international
white other14.9% internal, 3.8% international
mixed14.4% internal, 1.4% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.2% international

Why Newcastle-under-Lyme is changing

-3.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+4.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Newcastle-under-Lyme on UK Demographics →