Trend
-21 Latest quarter change
+788 Change across series
48 Official data points
Newcastle upon Tyne
1,128 on asylum support. Rank 24 nationally, 1 in North East. Rate: 35.18 per 10,000 (92nd percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
Summary
Newcastle upon Tyne has 1,128 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 24 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 35.18 per 10,000 residents places it around the 92nd percentile. 282 are in contingency accommodation (25% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Newcastle upon Tyne
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 827
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 282
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 394
Afghan programme 140
Resettlement cumulative 385
Population context
All pathways total 1,662
Share of local population 0.52%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Newcastle upon Tyne: WBI 74.5% (2021) → 37.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2042. 80% CI: 34.7–43.7%.
Ethnic composition — Newcastle upon Tyne
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 9.5% (2021) → 15.4% (2051). Christian 43.9% → 9.5%.
Religion — Newcastle upon Tyne
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
17.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.52). 89.4% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Newcastle upon Tyne
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Newcastle upon Tyne is changing
-7.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 54.7%
Mixed 58.3%
White Other 65.7%
Other 45.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 52%
Mixed 31.8%
White Other 29.5%
Other 20%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 33.5%
Mixed 40.9%
White Other 48%
Other 40.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 42,290 pupils. 59.2% White British. Schools are 15.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 59.2%
Asian 16%
Black 8.3%
Mixed 6.1%
White Other 6%
Other 4.4%
What this means
Schools are 15pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
40.8% Minority pupils now
53.6% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,128 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
35.18 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
282 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.