Trend
-11 Latest quarter change
+6 Change across series
48 Official data points
Newport
349 on asylum support. Rank 105 nationally, 3 in Wales. Rate: 20.79 per 10,000 (77th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
2025-12-31 Wales region
Summary
Newport has 349 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 105 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 20.79 per 10,000 residents places it around the 77th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Newport
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 343
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 6
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 187
Afghan programme 11
Resettlement cumulative 128
Population context
All pathways total 547
Share of local population 0.33%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Newport: WBI 80.4% (2021) → 45.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2048. 80% CI: 42.4–48.9%.
Ethnic composition — Newport
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 7.5% (2021) → 13.3% (2051). Christian 45.3% → 10.2%.
Religion — Newport
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
12.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.43). 93.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Newport
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Newport is changing
-6.6ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.7%
Mixed 69.2%
White Other 77.8%
Other 48%
Homeownership rate
White British 65.6%
Mixed 45.3%
White Other 40.4%
Other 36.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.7%
Mixed 32.4%
White Other 36.5%
Other 28.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
349 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.79 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Wales by supported asylum.