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East of England

North Hertfordshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Chris Hinchliff
Chris HinchliffLabour · North East Hertfordshire

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Hertfordshire.

8 people on asylum support in North Hertfordshire

Rank 307 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.58 per 10,000 puts North Hertfordshire in the 12th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 8 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.3M a year.

What asylum costs North Hertfordshire

£181Kestimated hotel costs/year
£20Ksubsistence payments/year
£10KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 8 people on asylum support in North Hertfordshire(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North Hertfordshire: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

158
252168840Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20153
Sept 20151
Dec 20153
Mar 20164
Jun 20163
Sept 20163
Dec 20163
Mar 20171
Jun 20172
Sept 20172
Dec 20172
Mar 20182
Sept 20181
Dec 20181
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Jun 20201
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20222
Jun 20222
Sept 20222
Dec 202284
Mar 2023124
Jun 202351
Sept 2023252
Dec 2023232
Mar 2024158
Jun 2024181
Sept 2024180
Dec 2024181
Mar 2025152
Jun 2025161
Sept 2025179
Dec 2025158

Trend

-21Latest quarter change
+157Change across series
44Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation8
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
8
Homes for Ukraine
399
Afghan programme
21
Resettlement cumulative
60

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine399
Afghan programme21
Resettlement cumulative60

Population context

All pathways total428
Share of local population0.31%

Ethnic composition projection

North Hertfordshire: White British 81.3% (2021) to 67.3% (2051). 80% CI: 66.8, 70.8%.

Ethnic composition: North Hertfordshire

022456790% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 60% in 2061White Other 8% in 2061Asian 6% in 2061Black 4% in 2061Mixed 16% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North Hertfordshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
81%
2031proj
78%
2041proj
73%
2051proj
67%
8%
11%
2061proj
60%
8%
16%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North Hertfordshire ranges from49.5% to 66.6%by 2051. That is a 17.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.6% (2021) → 2.3% (2051). Christian 46.6% → 11.8%.

Religion: North Hertfordshire

727476888%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 83% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

11.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 95.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North Hertfordshire

728507293%Census 2021UK-born 49% in 2051Foreign-born 51% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
white other12.2% internal, 1.6% international
mixed11.2% internal, 0.6% international
black9.5% internal, 1.7% international
other7.9% internal, 2% international
asian7.3% internal, 1.7% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.2% international

Why North Hertfordshire is changing

-3.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
+3.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North Hertfordshire on UK Demographics →