asylumstatsFollow the money
East Midlands

North Kesteven

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Kirsty Blackman
Kirsty BlackmanSNP · Aberdeen North

81 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Kesteven.

35 people on asylum support in North Kesteven

Rank 250 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 2.84 per 10,000 puts North Kesteven in the 32nd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 35 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.4M a year.

What asylum costs North Kesteven

£790Kestimated hotel costs/year
£90Ksubsistence payments/year
£42KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 35 people on asylum support in North Kesteven(0.04% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North Kesteven: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

9
9630Jun 2015Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20151
Sept 20151
Sept 20213
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20221
Mar 20231
Sept 20231
Mar 20251
Jun 20251
Sept 20254
Dec 20259

Trend

+5Latest quarter change
+8Change across series
13Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation35
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
35
Homes for Ukraine
247
Afghan programme
47
Resettlement cumulative
10

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine247
Afghan programme47
Resettlement cumulative10

Population context

All pathways total329
Share of local population0.27%

Ethnic composition projection

North Kesteven: White British 94.3% (2021) to 89.5% (2051). 80% CI: 89.5, 91.1%.

Ethnic composition: North Kesteven

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 87% in 2061White Other 4% in 2061Mixed 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North Kesteven

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
94%
2031proj
93%
2041proj
92%
2051proj
90%
2061proj
87%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North Kesteven ranges from56.0% to 79.7%by 2051. That is a 23.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 64.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.1% (2051). Christian 56.6% → 9.1%.

Religion: North Kesteven

427497294%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 89% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.16). 98% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North Kesteven

126507499%Census 2021UK-born 77% in 2051Foreign-born 23% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.3% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black14.5% internal, 3.9% international
asian13.5% internal, 2% international
other12% internal, 2.5% international
mixed12.9% internal, 1.5% international
white other11.7% internal, 2.5% international
white british9.2% internal, 0.3% international

Why North Kesteven is changing

-1.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+6pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North Kesteven on UK Demographics →