Trend
+55 Latest quarter change
+578 Change across series
32 Official data points
North Northamptonshire
592 on asylum support. Rank 57 nationally, 4 in East Midlands. Rate: 15.83 per 10,000 (70th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 East Midlands region
Summary
North Northamptonshire has 592 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 57 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 15.83 per 10,000 residents places it around the 70th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in North Northamptonshire
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 590
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 2
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,003
Afghan programme 102
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,697
Share of local population 0.45%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
North Northamptonshire: WBI 80.5% (2021) → 63.6% (2051).
Ethnic composition — North Northamptonshire
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.5%
Mixed 70.5%
White Other 81.3%
Other 72.9%
Homeownership rate
White British 69%
Mixed 49.7%
White Other 43.2%
Other 44.4%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.2%
Mixed 30.4%
White Other 30.5%
Other 29.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 55,772 pupils. 67.2% White British. Schools are 13.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 67.2%
White Other 12.8%
Black 7.7%
Mixed 6.2%
Asian 5.3%
Other 0.8%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
32.8% Minority pupils now
38% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
Crime
84.7 crimes per 1,000 residents (60th percentile). Down 1.4% year-on-year.
Crime breakdown
Key metrics
84.7 Per 1,000 residents
478 Hate crimes
30.8 Violent crime /1,000
Source
ONS recorded crime, Year ending March 2024. Correlation with asylum dispersal does not imply causation.
SEND pressure
EHCP rate: 382 per 10,000 pupils (88th percentile). 5-year growth: +45.1%.
Academic year 2023/24 Rapid growth
Primary need types
Key metrics
4,842 Total EHCPs
32.8% ASD as primary need
Source
DfE SEN2 return, Academic year 2023/24. Rising EHCPs reflect multiple factors, not solely population change.
Social care
Adult social care: £488 per capita (24th percentile).
£488 Gross spend per capita
352 Residential per 10k 65+
19.0 Quality of life (ASCOF 1A)
2,842 Delayed transfer days
Source
NHS Digital SALT/ASCOF, 2023/24.
Pressure index
Combined score across 5 domains: 48.3/100.
15.8 Asylum rate /10k
-0.00pp WB annual change
84.7 Crime /1,000
+45.1% SEND 5yr growth
£488 ASC /capita
Methodology
Each domain converted to percentile rank (0-100). Composite = unweighted mean. Measures correlation, not causation.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
592 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
15.83 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.