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South West

North Somerset

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dan Norris
Dan NorrisIndependent · North East Somerset and Hanham

3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping North Somerset.

83 people on asylum support in North Somerset

Rank 190 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.65 per 10,000 puts North Somerset in the 37th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 48 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 83 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.2M a year.

What asylum costs North Somerset

£1.9Mestimated hotel costs/year
£212Ksubsistence payments/year
£100KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 83 people on asylum support in North Somerset(0.09% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North Somerset: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

83
244163810Dec 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20142
Dec 20151
Mar 20161
Jun 20161
Sept 20161
Dec 20161
Jun 20171
Sept 20171
Mar 20182
Jun 20182
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20192
Jun 20205
Sept 20205
Dec 20205
Mar 20215
Jun 20216
Sept 20216
Dec 20219
Mar 20221
Jun 20227
Sept 20228
Dec 2022200
Mar 2023210
Jun 2023240
Sept 2023244
Dec 2023115
Mar 202498
Jun 202480
Sept 2024108
Dec 202495
Mar 202592
Jun 2025126
Sept 202595
Dec 202583

Trend

-12Latest quarter change
+81Change across series
37Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation34
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation48

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
83
Homes for Ukraine
790
Afghan programme
161
Resettlement cumulative
53

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine790
Afghan programme161
Resettlement cumulative53

Population context

All pathways total1,034
Share of local population0.46%

Ethnic composition projection

North Somerset: White British 90.4% (2021) to 78.6% (2051). 80% CI: 78, 81.2%.

Ethnic composition: North Somerset

025507499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 73% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Mixed 9% in 2061Other 3% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North Somerset

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
90%
2031proj
87%
2041proj
83%
9%
2051proj
79%
11%
2061proj
73%
12%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North Somerset ranges from63.1% to 78.6%by 2051. That is a 15.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 69.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.7% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 49.7% → 11.6%.

Religion: North Somerset

728497091%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 96.1% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North Somerset

327507397%Census 2021UK-born 70% in 2051Foreign-born 30% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black15.6% internal, 4.9% international
white other14.2% internal, 3% international
asian10.2% internal, 3.8% international
other10.1% internal, 3.8% international
mixed12% internal, 0.9% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.2% international

Why North Somerset is changing

-3.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+3.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North Somerset on UK Demographics →