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West Midlands

North Warwickshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Rachel Taylor
Rachel TaylorLabour · North Warwickshire and Bedworth
67 people on asylum support in North Warwickshire

Rank 211 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 9.9 per 10,000 puts North Warwickshire in the 61st percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 67 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.6M a year.

What asylum costs North Warwickshire

£1.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£171Ksubsistence payments/year
£80KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 67 people on asylum support in North Warwickshire(0.07% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

North Warwickshire: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

48
5436180Dec 2023Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Rwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 20233
Mar 202411
Jun 202417
Sept 202426
Dec 202426
Mar 202528
Jun 202533
Sept 202554
Dec 202548

Trend

-6Latest quarter change
+45Change across series
9Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation67
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
67
Homes for Ukraine
145
Afghan programme
1
Resettlement cumulative
2

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine145
Afghan programme1
Resettlement cumulative2

Population context

All pathways total213
Share of local population0.31%

Ethnic composition projection

North Warwickshire: White British 93.2% (2021) to 85.1% (2051).

Ethnic composition: North Warwickshire

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 78% in 2061White Other 4% in 2061Mixed 13% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: North Warwickshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
93%
2031proj
92%
2041proj
89%
2051proj
85%
2061proj
78%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in North Warwickshire ranges from42.9% to 71.4%by 2051. That is a 28.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 51.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 1.3% (2051). Christian 57.9% → 11.3%.

Religion: North Warwickshire

628497091%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

4.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.19). 98% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: North Warwickshire

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 74% in 2051Foreign-born 27% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.8% moved within UK, 0.2% arrived from abroad
other18.5% internal, 3% international
white other14.9% internal, 3% international
black12.7% internal, 0% international
mixed10.2% internal, 0.7% international
asian10% internal, 0.6% international
white british7.4% internal, 0.1% international

Why North Warwickshire is changing

-2.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+4.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View North Warwickshire on UK Demographics →