Trend
+30 Latest quarter change
+690 Change across series
45 Official data points
Northumberland
691 on asylum support. Rank 48 nationally, 5 in North East. Rate: 20.85 per 10,000 (78th percentile). Regional provider: Mears.
2025-12-31 North East region
Summary
Northumberland has 691 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 48 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 20.85 per 10,000 residents places it around the 78th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Northumberland
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 688
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 672
Afghan programme 197
Resettlement cumulative 186
Population context
All pathways total 1,560
Share of local population 0.47%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Northumberland: WBI 96.1% (2021) → 92.5% (2051).
Ethnic composition — Northumberland
White British
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 56.1% → 11.4%.
Religion — Northumberland
Christian No religion
Nativity
3.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.12). 98.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Northumberland
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Northumberland is changing
-1.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 55%
Mixed 65.5%
White Other 65.7%
Other 55.2%
Homeownership rate
White British 66%
Mixed 53.9%
White Other 56%
Other 43.9%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 30.3%
Mixed 39.5%
White Other 51.7%
Other 35.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 44,372 pupils. 92.3% White British.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 92.3%
Mixed 2.4%
Asian 2%
White Other 1.8%
Black 1%
Other 0.6%
What this means
School and population ethnic composition are closely aligned.
7.7% Minority pupils now
15.5% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
691 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
20.85 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in North East by supported asylum.