Trend
+20 Latest quarter change
+1,053 Change across series
48 Official data points
Nottingham
1,605 on asylum support. Rank 10 nationally, 1 in East Midlands. Rate: 48.48 per 10,000 (99th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Nottingham has 1,605 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 10 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 48.48 per 10,000 residents places it around the 99th percentile. 245 are in contingency accommodation (15.3% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Nottingham
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,326
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 34
Contingency accommodation 245
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 418
Afghan programme 245
Resettlement cumulative 214
Population context
All pathways total 2,268
Share of local population 0.69%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Nottingham: WBI 57.3% (2021) → 21.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2028. 80% CI: 20.5–28.3%.
Ethnic composition — Nottingham
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 13.2% (2021) → 26.6% (2051). Christian 37.5% → 13.6%.
Religion — Nottingham
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
24.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.71). 85.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Nottingham
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Nottingham is changing
-8.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 52.6%
Mixed 54.6%
White Other 69.4%
Other 48.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 48.4%
Mixed 25.4%
White Other 32.9%
Other 26.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 27.5%
Mixed 27.1%
White Other 36.3%
Other 39.1%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 48,538 pupils. 36.2% White British. Schools are 21.1pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 36.2%
Asian 22.3%
Black 15.5%
Mixed 13.9%
White Other 7.9%
Other 4.3%
What this means
Schools are 21pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
63.8% Minority pupils now
69.5% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,605 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
48.48 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
245 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East Midlands by supported asylum.