Trend
-7 Latest quarter change
+271 Change across series
48 Official data points
Oxford
277 on asylum support. Rank 118 nationally, 10 in South East. Rate: 16.68 per 10,000 (71st percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Oxford has 277 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 118 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 16.68 per 10,000 residents places it around the 71st percentile. 229 are in contingency accommodation (82.7% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Oxford
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 29
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 229
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 487
Afghan programme 129
Resettlement cumulative 190
Population context
All pathways total 893
Share of local population 0.54%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Oxford: WBI 53.5% (2021) → 18.6% (2051). White British minority by ~2024. 80% CI: 17.8–25.6%.
Ethnic composition — Oxford
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 9.7% (2021) → 16.6% (2051). Christian 42.3% → 17.4%.
Religion — Oxford
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
35% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: highly diverse (entropy 0.75). 81.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Oxford
UK-born Foreign-born
high immigration gateway: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Oxford is changing
-10.1ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53.6%
Mixed 56.4%
White Other 68.5%
Other 64.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 51.4%
Mixed 27%
White Other 34.2%
Other 29.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 45%
Mixed 41.5%
White Other 61.7%
Other 49.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
277 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
16.68 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
229 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.