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Pembrokeshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Henry Tufnell
Henry TufnellLabour · Mid and South Pembrokeshire
16 people on asylum support in Pembrokeshire

Rank 289 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.27 per 10,000 puts Pembrokeshire in the 21st percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 16 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.6M a year.

What asylum costs Pembrokeshire

£361Kestimated hotel costs/year
£41Ksubsistence payments/year
£19KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 16 people on asylum support in Pembrokeshire(0.02% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Pembrokeshire: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

6
9630Sept 2023Dec 2025Peak Sept 2025Bibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20231
Dec 20244
Mar 20258
Jun 20256
Sept 20259
Dec 20256

Trend

-3Latest quarter change
+5Change across series
6Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation15
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
16
Homes for Ukraine
345
Afghan programme
57
Resettlement cumulative
48

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine345
Afghan programme57
Resettlement cumulative48

Population context

All pathways total418
Share of local population0.33%

Ethnic composition projection

Pembrokeshire: White British 94.7% (2021) to 78.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Pembrokeshire

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 79% in 2051White Other 7% in 2051Asian 6% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsian

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Pembrokeshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
95%
2026proj
93%
2031proj
90%
2036proj
88%
2041proj
85%
2046proj
82%
2051proj
79%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.6% (2051). Christian 52.2% → 11.7%.

Religion: Pembrokeshire

728497192%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

4.8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 98.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Pembrokeshire

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 81% in 2051Foreign-born 19% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Pembrokeshire is changing

-0.9pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+6.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Pembrokeshire on UK Demographics →