Trend
-58 Latest quarter change
+387 Change across series
48 Official data points
Peterborough
508 on asylum support. Rank 68 nationally, 3 in East of England. Rate: 22.71 per 10,000 (81st percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Peterborough has 508 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 68 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 22.71 per 10,000 residents places it around the 81st percentile. 152 are in contingency accommodation (29.9% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Peterborough
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 343
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 152
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 585
Afghan programme 217
Resettlement cumulative 94
Population context
All pathways total 1,310
Share of local population 0.59%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Peterborough: WBI 59.5% (2021) → 16.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2028. 80% CI: 18.2–22.6%.
Ethnic composition — Peterborough
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 12.9% (2021) → 19.8% (2051). Christian 49.1% → 18.8%.
Religion — Peterborough
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
28.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.68). 80% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Peterborough
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Peterborough is changing
-11.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 60.8%
Mixed 66.1%
White Other 79.2%
Other 59.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 62.4%
Mixed 36.3%
White Other 33.2%
Other 35.1%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.3%
Mixed 27.1%
White Other 26%
Other 25.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 40,028 pupils. 42.5% White British. Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 42.5%
Asian 19.2%
White Other 18.9%
Mixed 8.9%
Black 8.5%
Other 2%
What this means
Schools are 17pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
57.5% Minority pupils now
72.4% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
NHS and council services will need increased interpreter/translation provision.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
508 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
22.71 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
152 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in East of England by supported asylum.