asylumstatsFollow the money
Wales

Rhondda Cynon Taf

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Chris Bryant
Chris BryantLabour · Rhondda and Ogmore
188 people on asylum support in Rhondda Cynon Taf

Rank 141 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.8 per 10,000 puts Rhondda Cynon Taf in the 56th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 188 people at £107 per person per day is about £7.3M a year.

What asylum costs Rhondda Cynon Taf

£4.2Mestimated hotel costs/year
£481Ksubsistence payments/year
£226KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 188 people on asylum support in Rhondda Cynon Taf(0.20% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Rhondda Cynon Taf: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

152
152101510Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20142
Dec 20144
Mar 20154
Jun 20154
Jun 20191
Sept 20191
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Jun 20202
Sept 20202
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20216
Sept 20217
Dec 20215
Mar 20225
Jun 202211
Sept 202211
Dec 20226
Mar 20235
Jun 202327
Sept 202337
Dec 202333
Mar 202454
Jun 202456
Sept 202461
Dec 202469
Mar 202587
Jun 2025111
Sept 2025130
Dec 2025152

Trend

+22Latest quarter change
+151Change across series
33Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation183
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
188
Homes for Ukraine
238
Afghan programme
41
Resettlement cumulative
56

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine238
Afghan programme41
Resettlement cumulative56

Population context

All pathways total467
Share of local population0.19%

Ethnic composition projection

Rhondda Cynon Taf: White British 95.2% (2021) to 80.6% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Rhondda Cynon Taf

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021White British 81% in 2051White Other 5% in 2051Asian 7% in 2051Mixed 3% in 205120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Rhondda Cynon Taf

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
96%
2021
95%
2026proj
93%
2031proj
91%
2036proj
89%
2041proj
86%
2046proj
83%
2051proj
81%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Religion projection

Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 0.8% (2051). Christian 38.6% → 8.3%.

Religion: Rhondda Cynon Taf

326497295%Census 2021Christian 8% in 2051No religion 90% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

3.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.15). 98.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Rhondda Cynon Taf

0255075100%Census 2021UK-born 85% in 2051Foreign-born 15% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Why Rhondda Cynon Taf is changing

-1.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.3pp
Local migration
+6.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Rhondda Cynon Taf on UK Demographics →