Trend
+6 Latest quarter change
+563 Change across series
22 Official data points
Rugby
565 on asylum support. Rank 61 nationally, 9 in West Midlands. Rate: 46.17 per 10,000 (97th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Rugby has 565 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 61 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 46.17 per 10,000 residents places it around the 97th percentile. 471 are in contingency accommodation (83.4% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Rugby
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 94
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 471
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 326
Afghan programme 53
Resettlement cumulative 37
Population context
All pathways total 944
Share of local population 0.77%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Rugby: WBI 74.9% (2021) → 38.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2042. 80% CI: 36.5–42.6%.
Ethnic composition — Rugby
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.0% (2021) → 3.6% (2051). Christian 53.7% → 14.9%.
Religion — Rugby
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Nativity
18.3% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.5). 88.5% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Rugby
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Rugby is changing
-9.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 62.9%
Mixed 70.5%
White Other 83.7%
Other 76.3%
Homeownership rate
White British 72.7%
Mixed 47.3%
White Other 40.6%
Other 52.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 34.8%
Mixed 33.7%
White Other 35.3%
Other 43.2%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
565 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
46.17 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
471 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in West Midlands by supported asylum.