asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Runnymede

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Ben Spencer
Dr Ben SpencerConservative · Runnymede and Weybridge
28 people on asylum support in Runnymede

Rank 259 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.01 per 10,000 puts Runnymede in the 33rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2056. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 28 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.1M a year.

What asylum costs Runnymede

£632Kestimated hotel costs/year
£72Ksubsistence payments/year
£34KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 28 people on asylum support in Runnymede(0.03% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Runnymede: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Sept 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

8
11740Sept 2015Sept 2025Peak Jun 2025Bibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20151
Dec 20151
Mar 20161
Jun 20161
Sept 20162
Dec 20162
Mar 20171
Jun 20171
Mar 20191
Jun 20234
Sept 20234
Dec 20234
Mar 20245
Jun 20244
Sept 20249
Dec 20249
Mar 202510
Jun 202511
Sept 20258

Trend

-3Latest quarter change
+7Change across series
19Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation26
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
28
Homes for Ukraine
278
Afghan programme
46
Resettlement cumulative
34

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine278
Afghan programme46
Resettlement cumulative34

Population context

All pathways total352
Share of local population0.38%

Ethnic composition projection

Runnymede: White British 72.6% (2021) to 53.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2056. 80% CI: 51.7, 58.4%.

Ethnic composition: Runnymede

021426485% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 46% in 2061White Other 14% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 11% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Runnymede

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
9%
2021
73%
11%
9%
2031proj
67%
12%
11%
2041proj
60%
13%
14%
2051proj
53%
14%
16%
8%
2061proj
46%
14%
18%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Runnymede ranges from37.7% to 54.1%by 2051. That is a 16.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 43.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.1% (2021) → 5.6% (2051). Christian 54.1% → 15.6%.

Religion: Runnymede

018355370%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 65% in 2051Muslim 6% in 2051Hindu 5% in 2051Sikh 7% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.54). 91.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Runnymede

1532506885%Census 2021UK-born 34% in 2051Foreign-born 67% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 12.2% moved within UK, 1.5% arrived from abroad
black20.6% internal, 6.3% international
other18.2% internal, 5.4% international
asian17.6% internal, 4.2% international
white other16.4% internal, 4.2% international
mixed17% internal, 1.9% international
white british10.3% internal, 0.5% international

Why Runnymede is changing

-7.4pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Runnymede on UK Demographics →