asylumstatsFollow the money
South East

Shepway

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
45 people on asylum support in Shepway

Rank 234 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.01 per 10,000 puts Shepway in the 39th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 45 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.8M a year.

What asylum costs Shepway

£1.0Mestimated hotel costs/year
£115Ksubsistence payments/year
£54KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 45 people on asylum support in Shepway(0.05% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Shepway: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

31
4102731370Mar 2015Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20173
Dec 20173
Mar 20183
Jun 20184
Sept 20183
Mar 20193
Jun 20193
Sept 20198
Dec 20198
Mar 20208
Jun 202015
Sept 202014
Dec 202014
Mar 202118
Jun 202118
Sept 202128
Dec 202123
Mar 202224
Jun 202223
Sept 202217
Dec 2022410
Mar 2023380
Jun 2023339
Sept 2023380
Dec 2023297
Mar 2024216
Jun 2024306
Sept 2024162
Dec 2024193
Mar 2025175
Jun 202599
Sept 2025313
Dec 202531

Trend

-282Latest quarter change
+29Change across series
35Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation39
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
45
Homes for Ukraine
387
Afghan programme
144
Resettlement cumulative
33

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine387
Afghan programme144
Resettlement cumulative33

Population context

All pathways total576
Share of local population0.51%

Ethnic composition projection

Shepway: White British 88.0% (2021) to 77.3% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Shepway

024487296% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 71% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 10% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Shepway

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
91%
2021
88%
2031proj
86%
2041proj
82%
2051proj
77%
2061proj
71%
10%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Shepway ranges from48.8% to 70.7%by 2051. That is a 21.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 1.3% (2051). Christian 50.9% → 11.0%.

Religion: Shepway

627476888%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 83% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

10.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 95.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Shepway

628507295%Census 2021UK-born 65% in 2051Foreign-born 35% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black14.1% internal, 2.6% international
mixed13.3% internal, 1.3% international
asian10.4% internal, 3.5% international
other10.7% internal, 2.4% international
white other11.1% internal, 1.5% international
white british8.2% internal, 0.3% international

Why Shepway is changing

-2.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+4.5pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Shepway on UK Demographics →