Trend
-31 Latest quarter change
+66 Change across series
11 Official data points
Somerset
Anna Sabine
3 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Somerset.
310 people housed on asylum support in Somerset
Rank 103 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 5.27 per 10,000 puts Somerset in the 44th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 106 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). At roughly £150/person/day, that costs the taxpayer an estimated £17M per year for this area alone.
What asylum costs Somerset
£6.1Mestimated hotel costs/year
£793Ksubsistence payments/year
£372KLA dispersal grant/year
Estimates based on 310 people on asylum support in Somerset (0.29% of 107,003 nationally). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend (2024/25 average, NAO). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person. Nationally, the hotel bill alone costs £62 per taxpayer per year.
Somerset: asylum numbers falling
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 191
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 13
Contingency accommodation 106
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 1,991
Afghan programme 142
Resettlement cumulative 6
Population context
All pathways total 2,443
Share of local population 0.42%
Ethnic composition projection
Somerset: WBI 91.3% (2021) → 73.8% (2051).
Ethnic composition: Somerset
White British White Other Asian Mixed
Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.
Ethnic composition: Somerset
Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.
Scenario explorer
Under different assumptions, White British share in Somerset ranges from 75.5% to 83.2% by 2051. That is a 7.7pp spread.
Fertility
Low ~108k/yr
Principal ~315k/yr
High ~476k/yr
Constant Rates stay at current levels
Half convergence Move halfway to national avg
Full convergence Converge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 78.7% by 2051
Full demographic profile
School pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.
View Somerset on UK Demographics →
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.8%
Mixed 66.5%
White Other 77.5%
Other 72.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 70.1%
Mixed 50.9%
White Other 42.2%
Other 40.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.9%
Mixed 37.3%
White Other 39.7%
Other 37.7%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 69,771 pupils. 84.3% White British. Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 84.3%
White Other 6.8%
Asian 3.2%
Mixed 3.1%
Black 2.1%
Other 0.6%
What this means
Schools are 7pp more diverse than the general population. Schools show the future.
15.7% Minority pupils now
25% Projected 2041
Demographic pipeline
83.3% Primary WBI
85.5% Secondary WBI
Stable demographic pipeline.
Source & validation
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
Housing demand growth from demographic change is moderate.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
310 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
5.27 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
106 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South West by supported asylum.