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East of England

South Cambridgeshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Pippa Heylings
Pippa HeylingsLiberal Democrats · South Cambridgeshire

5 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Cambridgeshire.

1 people on asylum support in South Cambridgeshire

Rank 344 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.06 per 10,000 puts South Cambridgeshire in the 5th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2056. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 1 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.0M a year.

What asylum costs South Cambridgeshire

£23Kestimated hotel costs/year
£3Ksubsistence payments/year
£1KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 1 people on asylum support in South Cambridgeshire(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Cambridgeshire: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1
246164820Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20142
Jun 20142
Sept 20143
Dec 20143
Mar 20153
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20152
Mar 20161
Jun 20161
Sept 20161
Jun 20211
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20221
Mar 2023241
Jun 2023246
Sept 2023243
Dec 2023212
Mar 2024201
Jun 202496
Sept 2024181
Dec 2024212
Mar 2025157
Jun 20251
Sept 20252
Dec 20251

Trend

-1Latest quarter change
-1Change across series
27Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
1
Homes for Ukraine
1,039
Afghan programme
171
Resettlement cumulative
15

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine1,039
Afghan programme171
Resettlement cumulative15

Population context

All pathways total1,211
Share of local population0.69%

Ethnic composition projection

South Cambridgeshire: White British 79.5% (2021) to 55.4% (2051). White British minority by ~2056. 80% CI: 54.8, 59.8%.

Ethnic composition: South Cambridgeshire

023466992% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 45% in 2061White Other 17% in 2061Asian 12% in 2061Mixed 18% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Cambridgeshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
87%
2021
80%
9%
2031proj
73%
12%
2041proj
65%
14%
9%
2051proj
55%
16%
11%
12%
2061proj
45%
17%
12%
18%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Cambridgeshire ranges from49.5% to 63.9%by 2051. That is a 14.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 55.0% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.8% (2021) → 4.9% (2051). Christian 48.6% → 12.0%.

Religion: South Cambridgeshire

020406080%Census 2021Christian 12% in 2051No religion 75% in 2051Muslim 5% in 2051Hindu 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

16.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.43). 93.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Cambridgeshire

1131506989%Census 2021UK-born 53% in 2051Foreign-born 47% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
black16.1% internal, 3.4% international
other15.7% internal, 3.8% international
asian13.2% internal, 3.9% international
white other13.5% internal, 2.8% international
mixed12% internal, 1.1% international
white british7.7% internal, 0.3% international

Why South Cambridgeshire is changing

-7.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.6pp
Local migration
-0.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Cambridgeshire on UK Demographics →