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East Midlands

South Derbyshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Samantha Niblett
Samantha NiblettLabour · South Derbyshire

4 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Derbyshire.

36 people on asylum support in South Derbyshire

Rank 248 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.01 per 10,000 puts South Derbyshire in the 33rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 36 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.4M a year.

What asylum costs South Derbyshire

£813Kestimated hotel costs/year
£92Ksubsistence payments/year
£43KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 36 people on asylum support in South Derbyshire(0.04% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Derbyshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

17
11677390Mar 2017Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby Stockholm
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20171
Jun 20171
Sept 20171
Dec 20171
Mar 20181
Jun 20182
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20192
Sept 20192
Dec 20192
Dec 202163
Mar 20225
Jun 202220
Sept 202222
Dec 202293
Mar 2023101
Jun 202382
Sept 2023116
Dec 202383
Mar 20251
Jun 20251
Sept 20251
Dec 202517

Trend

+16Latest quarter change
+16Change across series
25Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation34
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
36
Homes for Ukraine
266
Afghan programme
7
Resettlement cumulative
8

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine266
Afghan programme7
Resettlement cumulative8

Population context

All pathways total309
Share of local population0.26%

Ethnic composition projection

South Derbyshire: White British 90.2% (2021) to 80.4% (2051). 80% CI: 80.2, 83.5%.

Ethnic composition: South Derbyshire

025497499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 75% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Asian 6% in 2061Mixed 8% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Derbyshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
85%
2051proj
80%
2061proj
75%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Derbyshire ranges from52.6% to 74.7%by 2051. That is a 22.1pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.4% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.8% (2021) → 2.5% (2051). Christian 50.1% → 9.0%.

Religion: South Derbyshire

425466789%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.26). 96.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Derbyshire

126507599%Census 2021UK-born 66% in 2051Foreign-born 34% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
black22.4% internal, 2% international
white other15.6% internal, 2.1% international
mixed15.5% internal, 0.5% international
asian11.1% internal, 1.5% international
other9.1% internal, 1.5% international
white british8.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why South Derbyshire is changing

-3.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+3.7pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Derbyshire on UK Demographics →