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South West

South Gloucestershire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Stephen Flynn
Stephen FlynnSNP · Aberdeen South

77 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Gloucestershire.

151 people on asylum support in South Gloucestershire

Rank 154 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.89 per 10,000 puts South Gloucestershire in the 43rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 9 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 151 people at £107 per person per day is about £5.9M a year.

What asylum costs South Gloucestershire

£3.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£386Ksubsistence payments/year
£181KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 151 people on asylum support in South Gloucestershire(0.16% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Gloucestershire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

144
4252831420Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201435
Jun 201438
Sept 201442
Dec 201451
Mar 201547
Jun 201554
Sept 201552
Dec 201542
Mar 201646
Jun 201647
Sept 201649
Dec 201663
Mar 201754
Jun 201765
Sept 201760
Dec 201761
Mar 201869
Jun 201869
Sept 201871
Dec 201876
Mar 201980
Jun 201976
Sept 201977
Dec 201973
Mar 202080
Jun 202087
Sept 202084
Dec 202083
Mar 202185
Jun 202188
Sept 202185
Dec 2021100
Mar 2022116
Jun 2022156
Sept 2022126
Dec 2022371
Mar 2023373
Jun 2023417
Sept 2023425
Dec 2023396
Mar 2024154
Jun 2024115
Sept 2024127
Dec 2024132
Mar 2025132
Jun 2025137
Sept 2025128
Dec 2025144

Trend

+16Latest quarter change
+109Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation142
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only9
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
151
Homes for Ukraine
694
Afghan programme
152
Resettlement cumulative
102

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine694
Afghan programme152
Resettlement cumulative102

Population context

All pathways total997
Share of local population0.32%

Ethnic composition projection

South Gloucestershire: White British 85.8% (2021) to 67.6% (2051). 80% CI: 66.8, 71.7%.

Ethnic composition: South Gloucestershire

024487397% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 59% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 8% in 2061Black 4% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 5% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Gloucestershire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
86%
2031proj
81%
2041proj
75%
8%
2051proj
68%
10%
9%
2061proj
59%
10%
8%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Gloucestershire ranges from63.7% to 74.4%by 2051. That is a 10.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 68.1% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.7% (2021) → 6.2% (2051). Christian 46.9% → 9.3%.

Religion: South Gloucestershire

021436486%Census 2021Christian 9% in 2051No religion 81% in 2051Muslim 6% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslim

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

10.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.34). 94.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Gloucestershire

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 65% in 2051Foreign-born 35% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black16.1% internal, 5% international
other14.1% internal, 5.7% international
asian13.8% internal, 5.9% international
white other15.5% internal, 2.9% international
mixed13.3% internal, 1.4% international
white british8.6% internal, 0.2% international

Why South Gloucestershire is changing

-6.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+1.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Gloucestershire on UK Demographics →