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East Midlands

South Holland

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Sir John Hayes
Sir John HayesConservative · South Holland and The Deepings
76 people on asylum support in South Holland

Rank 200 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 7.54 per 10,000 puts South Holland in the 55th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. Accommodation and support for 76 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.0M a year.

What asylum costs South Holland

£1.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£194Ksubsistence payments/year
£91KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 76 people on asylum support in South Holland(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Holland: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

75
7550250Mar 2019Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20211
Sept 20211
Dec 20211
Mar 20221
Jun 20221
Sept 20221
Dec 20221
Dec 20232
Mar 20246
Jun 202412
Sept 202425
Dec 202429
Mar 202544
Jun 202547
Sept 202557
Dec 202575

Trend

+18Latest quarter change
+74Change across series
20Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation76
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
76
Homes for Ukraine
253
Afghan programme
27
Resettlement cumulative
5

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine253
Afghan programme27
Resettlement cumulative5

Population context

All pathways total356
Share of local population0.35%

Ethnic composition projection

South Holland: White British 84.4% (2021) to 67.9% (2051). 80% CI: 66.4, 72%.

Ethnic composition: South Holland

024487195% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 61% in 2061White Other 26% in 2061Mixed 6% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Holland

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
90%
2021
84%
12%
2031proj
80%
16%
2041proj
74%
20%
2051proj
68%
23%
2061proj
61%
26%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Holland ranges from42.8% to 63.4%by 2051. That is a 20.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 49.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 0.9% (2051). Christian 63.0% → 15.9%.

Religion: South Holland

1130496887%Census 2021Christian 16% in 2051No religion 82% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

14.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.32). 88.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Holland

1030507090%Census 2021UK-born 42% in 2051Foreign-born 58% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
other14.9% internal, 6.7% international
black15.7% internal, 1.4% international
mixed15.7% internal, 1% international
white other13.2% internal, 2.2% international
asian10.5% internal, 1.7% international
white british8.7% internal, 0.2% international

Why South Holland is changing

-5.8pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.8pp
Local migration
+1.4pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Holland on UK Demographics →