Trend
+77 Latest quarter change
+214 Change across series
16 Official data points
South Kesteven
215 on asylum support. Rank 138 nationally, 7 in East Midlands. Rate: 14.61 per 10,000 (67th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 East Midlands region
Summary
South Kesteven has 215 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 138 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 14.61 per 10,000 residents places it around the 67th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in South Kesteven
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 215
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 0
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 478
Afghan programme 20
Resettlement cumulative 10
Population context
All pathways total 713
Share of local population 0.48%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
South Kesteven: WBI 90.5% (2021) → 77.0% (2051). 80% CI: 68.4–74.1%.
Ethnic composition — South Kesteven
White British White Other Mixed 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.6% (2051). Christian 58.1% → 12.2%.
Religion — South Kesteven
Christian No religion
Nativity
8.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.24). 95.7% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — South Kesteven
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why South Kesteven is changing
-3.2ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.2%
Mixed 70%
White Other 78.5%
Other 66.5%
Homeownership rate
White British 71%
Mixed 57.8%
White Other 41.4%
Other 48.8%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 29.7%
Mixed 39.7%
White Other 35.8%
Other 40.4%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
215 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
14.61 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East Midlands by supported asylum.