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South East

South Oxfordshire

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Stephen Flynn
Stephen FlynnSNP · Aberdeen South

77 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping South Oxfordshire.

23 people on asylum support in South Oxfordshire

Rank 272 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.45 per 10,000 puts South Oxfordshire in the 22nd percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 23 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.9M a year.

What asylum costs South Oxfordshire

£519Kestimated hotel costs/year
£59Ksubsistence payments/year
£28KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 23 people on asylum support in South Oxfordshire(0.02% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

South Oxfordshire: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

22
221570Mar 2015Dec 2025Peak Jun 2024Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20153
Jun 20153
Sept 20153
Dec 20152
Dec 20162
Mar 20174
Jun 20174
Sept 20172
Dec 20172
Mar 20182
Jun 20182
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20193
Sept 20193
Dec 20191
Mar 20201
Sept 20201
Dec 20201
Mar 20211
Jun 20212
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20222
Jun 20222
Sept 20222
Dec 20222
Mar 20232
Jun 20236
Sept 202313
Dec 202315
Mar 202420
Jun 202422
Sept 202421
Dec 202421
Mar 202517
Jun 202520
Sept 202520
Dec 202522

Trend

+2Latest quarter change
+19Change across series
40Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation21
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
23
Homes for Ukraine
846
Afghan programme
140
Resettlement cumulative
10

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine846
Afghan programme140
Resettlement cumulative10

Population context

All pathways total1,009
Share of local population0.64%

Ethnic composition projection

South Oxfordshire: White British 85.8% (2021) to 72.7% (2051). 80% CI: 72.3, 75.9%.

Ethnic composition: South Oxfordshire

024487296% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 66% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 13% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: South Oxfordshire

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
91%
2021
86%
2031proj
82%
9%
2041proj
78%
10%
2051proj
73%
10%
8%
2061proj
66%
10%
13%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in South Oxfordshire ranges from54.0% to 71.5%by 2051. That is a 17.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.5% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 3.1% (2051). Christian 53.1% → 13.2%.

Religion: South Oxfordshire

021426384%Census 2021Christian 13% in 2051No religion 79% in 2051Muslim 3% in 2051Hindu 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

12.7% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.33). 95.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: South Oxfordshire

829507192%Census 2021UK-born 60% in 2051Foreign-born 40% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.1% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
black17.7% internal, 2.2% international
other14.9% internal, 3.8% international
white other14.9% internal, 3% international
asian14.4% internal, 3.2% international
mixed13.4% internal, 1.8% international
white british9.4% internal, 0.4% international

Why South Oxfordshire is changing

-5.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.9pp
Local migration
+2.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View South Oxfordshire on UK Demographics →