Trend
+1 Latest quarter change
+239 Change across series
48 Official data points
Southend-on-Sea
248 on asylum support. Rank 125 nationally, 11 in East of England. Rate: 13.39 per 10,000 (64th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
2025-12-31 East of England region
Summary
Southend-on-Sea has 248 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 125 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 13.39 per 10,000 residents places it around the 64th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Southend-on-Sea
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 240
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 8
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 306
Afghan programme 98
Resettlement cumulative 34
Population context
All pathways total 652
Share of local population 0.35%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Southend-on-Sea: WBI 81.6% (2021) → 57.2% (2051). White British minority by ~2058. 80% CI: 49.7–55.9%.
Ethnic composition — Southend-on-Sea
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 3.2% (2021) → 7.2% (2051). Christian 45.2% → 11.2%.
Religion — Southend-on-Sea
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
12.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.42). 94.1% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Southend-on-Sea
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Southend-on-Sea is changing
-5.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 59.5%
Mixed 70.4%
White Other 71.7%
Other 62.6%
Homeownership rate
White British 63.6%
Mixed 47.8%
White Other 43.6%
Other 43.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26%
Mixed 34.3%
White Other 40%
Other 40%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 31,118 pupils. 62.9% White British. Schools are 18.7pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 62.9%
Asian 12.9%
Black 8.6%
Mixed 7.7%
White Other 6.6%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
37.1% Minority pupils now
39.9% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
248 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
13.39 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.