Trend
+17 Latest quarter change
+80 Change across series
46 Official data points
Spelthorne
87 on asylum support. Rank 195 nationally, 25 in South East. Rate: 8.13 per 10,000 (53rd percentile). 1 named hotel site. Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Spelthorne has 87 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 195 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 8.13 per 10,000 residents places it around the 53rd percentile. 37 are in contingency accommodation (42.5% of total). 1 named hotel site is publicly documented. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Spelthorne
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 33
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 17
Contingency accommodation 37
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 373
Afghan programme 81
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 541
Share of local population 0.51%
Hotel evidence
1 named site publicly documented.
Ethnic composition projection
Spelthorne: WBI 69.2% (2021) → 26.7% (2051). White British minority by ~2035. 80% CI: 26.3–31.3%.
Ethnic composition — Spelthorne
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 4.3% (2021) → 20.5% (2051). Christian 54.0% → 13.7%.
Religion — Spelthorne
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu Sikh
Nativity
20.9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 89.9% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Spelthorne
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Spelthorne is changing
-11.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 63.7%
Mixed 71.6%
White Other 77.7%
Other 71.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 72%
Mixed 52.7%
White Other 51.3%
Other 56.3%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 31.8%
Mixed 37.2%
White Other 45.4%
Other 45.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
87 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
8.13 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
37 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in South East by supported asylum.