Trend
-84 Latest quarter change
+313 Change across series
42 Official data points
Stevenage
322 on asylum support. Rank 109 nationally, 9 in East of England. Rate: 35.09 per 10,000 (91st percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Stevenage has 322 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 109 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 35.09 per 10,000 residents places it around the 91st percentile. 274 are in contingency accommodation (85.1% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Stevenage
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 45
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 3
Contingency accommodation 274
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 90
Afghan programme 47
Resettlement cumulative 35
Population context
All pathways total 459
Share of local population 0.5%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Stevenage: WBI 75.3% (2021) → 48.5% (2051). White British minority by ~2049.
Ethnic composition — Stevenage
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 3.3% (2021) → 9.1% (2051). Christian 45.8% → 15.3%.
Religion — Stevenage
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
16.5% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 91.8% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Stevenage
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Stevenage is changing
-7.8ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65.8%
Mixed 75.4%
White Other 78.6%
Other 73.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.6%
Mixed 46.6%
White Other 51.2%
Other 55%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 28.1%
Mixed 34.9%
White Other 41.8%
Other 47.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
322 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
35.09 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
274 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 6 in East of England by supported asylum.