Trend
-28 Latest quarter change
+837 Change across series
48 Official data points
Stoke-on-Trent
1,279 on asylum support. Rank 18 nationally, 5 in West Midlands. Rate: 47.3 per 10,000 (98th percentile). Regional provider: Serco.
Summary
Stoke-on-Trent has 1,279 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 18 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 47.3 per 10,000 residents places it around the 98th percentile. 262 are in contingency accommodation (20.5% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Stoke-on-Trent
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 1,001
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 16
Contingency accommodation 262
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 187
Afghan programme 57
Resettlement cumulative 21
Population context
All pathways total 1,523
Share of local population 0.56%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Stoke-on-Trent: WBI 78.5% (2021) → 32.0% (2051). White British minority by ~2041. 80% CI: 35–41.3%.
Ethnic composition — Stoke-on-Trent
White British White Other Asian Black Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 9.8% (2021) → 18.2% (2051). Christian 48.6% → 10.8%.
Religion — Stoke-on-Trent
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
13.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.45). 91.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Stoke-on-Trent
UK-born Foreign-born
emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Stoke-on-Trent is changing
-7.9ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 57.3%
Mixed 61.3%
White Other 75.9%
Other 55.1%
Homeownership rate
White British 59.3%
Mixed 35.1%
White Other 29.3%
Other 25.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 21.1%
Mixed 26.8%
White Other 31%
Other 27.8%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 41,299 pupils. 59.2% White British. Schools are 19.3pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 59.2%
Asian 18.9%
Black 7.6%
Mixed 5.9%
White Other 5.6%
Other 2.8%
What this means
Schools are 19pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
40.8% Minority pupils now
55.3% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
1,279 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
47.3 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
262 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in West Midlands by supported asylum.