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West Midlands

Stratford-on-Avon

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Manuela Perteghella
Manuela PerteghellaLiberal Democrats · Stratford-on-Avon
63 people on asylum support in Stratford-on-Avon

Rank 219 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.23 per 10,000 puts Stratford-on-Avon in the 40th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 62 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 63 people at £107 per person per day is about £2.5M a year.

What asylum costs Stratford-on-Avon

£1.4Mestimated hotel costs/year
£161Ksubsistence payments/year
£76KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 63 people on asylum support in Stratford-on-Avon(0.07% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Stratford-on-Avon: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

148
14899490Dec 2022Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Albania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Dec 2022124
Mar 2023136
Jun 2023137
Sept 2023139
Dec 2023116
Mar 202462
Jun 2024102
Sept 202491
Dec 2024115
Mar 202584
Jun 2025111
Sept 2025138
Dec 2025148

Trend

+10Latest quarter change
+24Change across series
13Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation0
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation62

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
63
Homes for Ukraine
393
Afghan programme
73
Resettlement cumulative
66

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine393
Afghan programme73
Resettlement cumulative66

Population context

All pathways total529
Share of local population0.36%

Ethnic composition projection

Stratford-on-Avon: White British 90.1% (2021) to 82.0% (2051). 80% CI: 81.8, 84.8%.

Ethnic composition: Stratford-on-Avon

025497499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 78% in 2061White Other 8% in 2061Mixed 8% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Stratford-on-Avon

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
85%
2051proj
82%
2061proj
78%
8%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Stratford-on-Avon ranges from53.8% to 74.7%by 2051. That is a 20.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 61.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.5% (2021) → 1.6% (2051). Christian 59.7% → 13.6%.

Religion: Stratford-on-Avon

928476786%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 81% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 96.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Stratford-on-Avon

327507397%Census 2021UK-born 58% in 2051Foreign-born 42% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 10.3% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
black20.3% internal, 1% international
other15.6% internal, 2.9% international
white other15% internal, 2.8% international
asian15.5% internal, 2.1% international
mixed15.6% internal, 0.7% international
white british9.7% internal, 0.3% international

Why Stratford-on-Avon is changing

-3.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+3.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Stratford-on-Avon on UK Demographics →