asylumstatsFollow the money
South West

Stroud

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Simon Opher
Dr Simon OpherLabour · Stroud
13 people on asylum support in Stroud

Rank 298 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.03 per 10,000 puts Stroud in the 19th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 2 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 13 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.5M a year.

What asylum costs Stroud

£293Kestimated hotel costs/year
£33Ksubsistence payments/year
£16KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 13 people on asylum support in Stroud(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Stroud: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

8
5335180Sept 2017Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Albania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 20173
Dec 20173
Dec 202230
Mar 202332
Jun 202349
Sept 202353
Dec 202335
Jun 20247
Sept 20246
Dec 20246
Mar 20258
Jun 202510
Sept 20258
Dec 20258

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+5Change across series
14Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation11
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only2
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
13
Homes for Ukraine
446
Afghan programme
53
Resettlement cumulative
37

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine446
Afghan programme53
Resettlement cumulative37

Population context

All pathways total512
Share of local population0.41%

Ethnic composition projection

Stroud: White British 92.4% (2021) to 84.5% (2051). 80% CI: 84.3, 87%.

Ethnic composition: Stroud

0255075100% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 79% in 2061White Other 5% in 2061Mixed 12% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Stroud

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
95%
2021
92%
2031proj
91%
2041proj
88%
2051proj
84%
2061proj
79%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Stroud ranges from54.7% to 77.5%by 2051. That is a 22.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 62.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.4% (2021) → 0.7% (2051). Christian 50.8% → 11.1%.

Religion: Stroud

627497091%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 86% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

6.6% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.2). 98.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Stroud

226507498%Census 2021UK-born 64% in 2051Foreign-born 36% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.4% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black18.7% internal, 2.6% international
asian12.7% internal, 2.8% international
mixed13.5% internal, 1.1% international
white other11.4% internal, 1.9% international
other8.3% internal, 1.6% international
white british8.1% internal, 0.3% international

Why Stroud is changing

-2.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.2pp
Local migration
+5.1pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Stroud on UK Demographics →