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South East

Surrey Heath

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Dr Al Pinkerton
Dr Al PinkertonLiberal Democrats · Surrey Heath
37 people on asylum support in Surrey Heath

Rank 247 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 3.89 per 10,000 puts Surrey Heath in the 39th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2056. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. 33 in contingency accommodation (hotels, not housing). Accommodation and support for 37 people at £107 per person per day is about £1.4M a year.

What asylum costs Surrey Heath

£835Kestimated hotel costs/year
£95Ksubsistence payments/year
£44KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 37 people on asylum support in Surrey Heath(0.04% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Surrey Heath: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

87
155103520Jun 2014Dec 2025Peak Dec 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Jun 20142
Sept 20142
Dec 20142
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Sept 20152
Dec 20152
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20181
Dec 20181
Mar 20191
Jun 20191
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20212
Sept 20215
Dec 20213
Mar 20225
Jun 20227
Sept 202210
Dec 2022127
Mar 2023129
Jun 2023136
Sept 2023126
Dec 2023155
Mar 2024113
Jun 202490
Sept 2024143
Dec 2024141
Mar 2025103
Jun 2025110
Sept 2025128
Dec 202587

Trend

-41Latest quarter change
+85Change across series
34Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation3
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation33

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
37
Homes for Ukraine
265
Afghan programme
70
Resettlement cumulative
15

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine265
Afghan programme70
Resettlement cumulative15

Population context

All pathways total372
Share of local population0.39%

Ethnic composition projection

Surrey Heath: White British 77.9% (2021) to 55.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2056. 80% CI: 54.6, 59.4%.

Ethnic composition: Surrey Heath

022456790% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 45% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 18% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 13% in 2061Other 9% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Surrey Heath

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
85%
2021
78%
9%
2031proj
72%
8%
11%
2041proj
64%
10%
13%
2051proj
55%
11%
16%
9%
2061proj
45%
12%
18%
13%
9%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Surrey Heath ranges from40.0% to 59.0%by 2051. That is a 18.9pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 46.6% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.3% (2021) → 8.0% (2051). Christian 53.1% → 13.6%.

Religion: Surrey Heath

018365573%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 68% in 2051Muslim 8% in 2051Hindu 3% in 2051Sikh 5% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHinduSikh

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

17.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.47). 93.5% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Surrey Heath

1231506988%Census 2021UK-born 38% in 2051Foreign-born 62% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.9% moved within UK, 0.9% arrived from abroad
black14.1% internal, 4.8% international
white other12.8% internal, 3% international
other11.5% internal, 4.3% international
mixed12.2% internal, 1.1% international
asian11.3% internal, 1.6% international
white british8% internal, 0.4% international

Why Surrey Heath is changing

-7.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.4pp
Local migration
-0.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Surrey Heath on UK Demographics →