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South East

Swale

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
77 people on asylum support in Swale

Rank 198 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 4.79 per 10,000 puts Swale in the 43rd percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. 5 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 77 people at £107 per person per day is about £3.0M a year.

What asylum costs Swale

£1.7Mestimated hotel costs/year
£197Ksubsistence payments/year
£92KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 77 people on asylum support in Swale(0.08% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Swale: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

61
6141200Mar 2015Dec 2025Peak Dec 2025Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20152
Jun 20152
Dec 20151
Jun 20161
Mar 20181
Jun 20181
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20192
Jun 20192
Sept 20196
Dec 20196
Mar 20204
Jun 20204
Sept 20205
Dec 20205
Mar 20215
Jun 20217
Sept 20217
Dec 20214
Mar 20223
Jun 20223
Sept 20223
Dec 20223
Mar 20232
Jun 202329
Sept 202336
Dec 202329
Mar 202419
Jun 202425
Sept 202422
Dec 202443
Mar 202546
Jun 202549
Sept 202551
Dec 202561

Trend

+10Latest quarter change
+59Change across series
36Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation72
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only5
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
77
Homes for Ukraine
217
Afghan programme
39
Resettlement cumulative
81

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine217
Afghan programme39
Resettlement cumulative81

Population context

All pathways total333
Share of local population0.21%

Ethnic composition projection

Swale: White British 88.6% (2021) to 75.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Swale

024497398% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 69% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Black 8% in 2061Mixed 7% in 2061Other 3% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Swale

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
89%
2031proj
86%
2041proj
81%
2051proj
76%
9%
2061proj
69%
10%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Swale ranges from57.6% to 75.4%by 2051. That is a 17.8pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 64.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 2.4% (2051). Christian 49.7% → 9.7%.

Religion: Swale

526487092%Census 2021Christian 10% in 2051No religion 87% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 96.2% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Swale

327507497%Census 2021UK-born 59% in 2051Foreign-born 41% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.6% moved within UK, 0.3% arrived from abroad
other14.4% internal, 2.6% international
black14.7% internal, 0.9% international
white other12% internal, 2.3% international
mixed11.9% internal, 0.8% international
asian8.1% internal, 1.4% international
white british8.2% internal, 0.1% international

Why Swale is changing

-4.2pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+3.2pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Swale on UK Demographics →