Trend
-8 Latest quarter change
+191 Change across series
48 Official data points
Swansea
701 on asylum support. Rank 45 nationally, 2 in Wales. Rate: 27.89 per 10,000 (85th percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
2025-12-31 Wales region
Summary
Swansea has 701 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 45 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 27.89 per 10,000 residents places it around the 85th percentile. No contingency accommodation recorded. No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Swansea
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 682
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 19
Contingency accommodation 0
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 348
Afghan programme 54
Resettlement cumulative 164
Population context
All pathways total 1,103
Share of local population 0.44%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Swansea: WBI 87.5% (2021) → 58.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2057. 80% CI: 55–62.3%.
Ethnic composition — Swansea
White British White Other Asian Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 3.5% (2021) → 6.0% (2051). Christian 44.3% → 11.2%.
Religion — Swansea
Christian No religion Muslim
Nativity
9.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: moderately diverse (entropy 0.31). 95.2% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Swansea
UK-born Foreign-born
low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.
Why Swansea is changing
-4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 53.8%
Mixed 56%
White Other 67.3%
Other 47%
Homeownership rate
White British 64.3%
Mixed 34.4%
White Other 38.1%
Other 26.6%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 32.1%
Mixed 37.6%
White Other 43.3%
Other 45.6%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
EAL demand growth is moderate.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
701 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
27.89 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
0 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in Wales by supported asylum.