Trend
+22 Latest quarter change
+472 Change across series
48 Official data points
Swindon
562 on asylum support. Rank 62 nationally, 2 in South West. Rate: 23.04 per 10,000 (81st percentile). Regional provider: Clearsprings Ready Homes.
Summary
Swindon has 562 people on asylum support at quarter end, ranking 62 out of 361 local authorities nationally. The rate of 23.04 per 10,000 residents places it around the 81st percentile. 66 are in contingency accommodation (11.7% of total). No hotel evidence attached yet. These are quarter-end stock numbers, not throughput.
Supported asylum in Swindon
Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.
Local numbers
Accommodation split
Dispersal accommodation 480
Initial accommodation 0
Subsistence only 16
Contingency accommodation 66
Pathway breakdown
Other routes
Homes for Ukraine 402
Afghan programme 181
Resettlement cumulative 0
Population context
All pathways total 1,145
Share of local population 0.47%
Hotel evidence
No public hotel evidence attached to this area yet.
No public hotel evidence logged for this area yet.
Ethnic composition projection
Swindon: WBI 74.2% (2021) → 23.9% (2051). White British minority by ~2036. 80% CI: 29.8–35%.
Ethnic composition — Swindon
White British White Other Asian Black Mixed Other 80% CI
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained
Census 2011 → 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation (σ=0.04, calibrated from NEWETHPOP validation). Not a forecast.
Religion projection
Muslim 2.9% (2021) → 7.3% (2051). Christian 49.4% → 16.4%.
Religion — Swindon
Christian No religion Muslim Hindu
Nativity
20.4% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.51). 90% main language English.
UK-born vs foreign-born — Swindon
UK-born Foreign-born
established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.
Why Swindon is changing
-10.4ppWhite British change 2011–2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.
Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).
Economy & housing by ethnicity
Census 2021 employment, homeownership, and qualifications by ethnic group.
Employment rate
White British 65%
Mixed 71.2%
White Other 78.5%
Other 66.8%
Homeownership rate
White British 67.1%
Mixed 43.9%
White Other 46.1%
Other 48.2%
Degree+ qualification rate
White British 26.9%
Mixed 29.3%
White Other 38.8%
Other 30.5%
Source
Census 2021 RM018 (economic activity), RM134 (tenure), RM049 (qualifications) by ethnic group. Observed, not projected.
School ethnicity
DfE School Census 2024/25: 36,954 pupils. 61% White British. Schools are 13.2pp more diverse than the general population.
Pupil ethnicity
White British 61%
Asian 16.4%
White Other 8.3%
Mixed 6.7%
Black 6.1%
Other 1.4%
What this means
Schools are 13pp more diverse than the general population — schools show the future.
39% Minority pupils now
62.9% Projected 2041
Source
DfE School Census 2024/25. State-funded schools. Upper-tier LA level.
Service demand impact
Projected impact of demographic change on local services.
non-English speakers
Interpreter demand is manageable at current levels.
foreign-born growth to 2051
High foreign-born population growth will drive additional housing demand, particularly in the private rented sector.
EAL growth
Significant additional EAL (English as Additional Language) support likely needed.
National benchmarks
Supported asylum count
562 National distribution.
Supported asylum rate
23.04 Per 10,000 residents.
Contingency accommodation
66 Hotel and contingency placements.
Regional peers
Top 5 in South West by supported asylum.