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South East

Test Valley

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Linsey Farnsworth
Linsey FarnsworthLabour · Amber Valley

11 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Test Valley.

22 people on asylum support in Test Valley

Rank 276 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 1.62 per 10,000 puts Test Valley in the 24th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 22 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.9M a year.

What asylum costs Test Valley

£497Kestimated hotel costs/year
£56Ksubsistence payments/year
£26KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 22 people on asylum support in Test Valley(0.02% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Test Valley: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

11
9463310Mar 2020Dec 2025Peak Dec 2022Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20212
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Jun 20226
Sept 202211
Dec 202294
Mar 202390
Jun 202379
Sept 202375
Jun 20242
Sept 20246
Dec 20246
Mar 20258
Jun 20259
Sept 20252
Dec 202511

Trend

+9Latest quarter change
+9Change across series
18Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation21
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
22
Homes for Ukraine
627
Afghan programme
30
Resettlement cumulative
20

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine627
Afghan programme30
Resettlement cumulative20

Population context

All pathways total679
Share of local population0.5%

Ethnic composition projection

Test Valley: White British 88.0% (2021) to 75.9% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Test Valley

024497398% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 70% in 2061White Other 8% in 2061Asian 6% in 2061Black 4% in 2061Mixed 8% in 2061Other 4% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Test Valley

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
93%
2021
88%
2031proj
85%
2041proj
81%
2051proj
76%
2061proj
70%
8%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Test Valley ranges from53.1% to 72.7%by 2051. That is a 19.6pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 60.3% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.0% (2021) → 1.6% (2051). Christian 53.5% → 11.1%.

Religion: Test Valley

627476889%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

11.1% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.3). 95.8% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Test Valley

628507294%Census 2021UK-born 50% in 2051Foreign-born 50% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 9.4% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
black16.9% internal, 1.5% international
white other13.4% internal, 2.8% international
other14% internal, 2% international
asian12.3% internal, 2.8% international
mixed12.5% internal, 1.6% international
white british8.9% internal, 0.3% international

Why Test Valley is changing

-4.5pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+2.8pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Test Valley on UK Demographics →