asylumstatsFollow the money
South West

Tewkesbury

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Cameron Thomas
Cameron ThomasLiberal Democrats · Tewkesbury
4 people on asylum support in Tewkesbury

Rank 329 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.39 per 10,000 puts Tewkesbury in the 11th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 4 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.2M a year.

What asylum costs Tewkesbury

£90Kestimated hotel costs/year
£10Ksubsistence payments/year
£5KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 4 people on asylum support in Tewkesbury(0.00% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Tewkesbury: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Sept 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

1
8557280Mar 2014Sept 2025Peak Mar 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20156
Sept 20154
Dec 20154
Mar 20165
Jun 20164
Sept 20164
Dec 20164
Sept 20182
Dec 20182
Mar 20196
Jun 20192
Sept 20192
Dec 20192
Mar 20202
Jun 20202
Sept 20202
Dec 20202
Mar 20212
Jun 20212
Sept 20212
Dec 20212
Mar 20227
Jun 202212
Sept 202216
Dec 202280
Mar 202385
Jun 202368
Sept 202373
Sept 20244
Dec 20244
Mar 20254
Jun 20254
Sept 20251

Trend

-3Latest quarter change
+0Change across series
38Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation4
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
4
Homes for Ukraine
260
Afghan programme
102
Resettlement cumulative
10

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine260
Afghan programme102
Resettlement cumulative10

Population context

All pathways total366
Share of local population0.35%

Ethnic composition projection

Tewkesbury: White British 90.4% (2021) to 82.3% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Tewkesbury

025497499% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 78% in 2061White Other 7% in 2061Asian 3% in 2061Mixed 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Tewkesbury

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
94%
2021
90%
2031proj
88%
2041proj
86%
2051proj
82%
2061proj
78%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Tewkesbury ranges from48.8% to 72.5%by 2051. That is a 23.7pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 56.9% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 0.6% (2021) → 1.0% (2051). Christian 54.2% → 10.8%.

Religion: Tewkesbury

627476889%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 84% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religion

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

8.2% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.25). 96.6% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Tewkesbury

327507397%Census 2021UK-born 71% in 2051Foreign-born 29% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 8.8% moved within UK, 0.5% arrived from abroad
other14.7% internal, 4.6% international
black15.3% internal, 1.5% international
asian14.3% internal, 1.7% international
white other10.6% internal, 2.8% international
mixed11.9% internal, 0.9% international
white british8.4% internal, 0.3% international

Why Tewkesbury is changing

-3.6pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1.1pp
Local migration
+3.9pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Tewkesbury on UK Demographics →