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East of England

Three Rivers

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Kim Johnson
Kim JohnsonLabour · Liverpool Riverside
5 people on asylum support in Three Rivers

Rank 324 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.52 per 10,000 puts Three Rivers in the 12th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2038. 1 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 5 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.2M a year.

What asylum costs Three Rivers

£113Kestimated hotel costs/year
£13Ksubsistence payments/year
£6KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 5 people on asylum support in Three Rivers(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Three Rivers: asylum numbers holding steady

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

4
6420Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2025Bibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 20141
Jun 20141
Sept 20141
Dec 20141
Mar 20151
Jun 20151
Mar 20182
Jun 20182
Sept 20183
Sept 20231
Jun 20244
Sept 20245
Dec 20244
Mar 20255
Jun 20256
Sept 20254
Dec 20254

Trend

+0Latest quarter change
+3Change across series
17Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation4
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only1
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
5
Homes for Ukraine
261
Afghan programme
13
Resettlement cumulative
11

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine261
Afghan programme13
Resettlement cumulative11

Population context

All pathways total279
Share of local population0.29%

Ethnic composition projection

Three Rivers: White British 68.0% (2021) to 36.1% (2051). White British minority by ~2038. 80% CI: 34.9, 40.1%.

Ethnic composition: Three Rivers

021426385% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 26% in 2061White Other 12% in 2061Asian 37% in 2061Black 3% in 2061Mixed 15% in 2061Other 7% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Three Rivers

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
80%
9%
2021
68%
9%
15%
2031proj
58%
11%
20%
2041proj
47%
12%
26%
2051proj
36%
12%
32%
11%
2061proj
26%
12%
37%
15%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Three Rivers ranges from35.4% to 50.9%by 2051. That is a 15.5pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 40.8% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 3.9% (2021) → 9.4% (2051). Christian 50.5% → 13.6%.

Religion: Three Rivers

014284255%Census 2021Christian 14% in 2051No religion 43% in 2051Muslim 9% in 2051Hindu 29% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

19% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.58). 92.3% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Three Rivers

1432506886%Census 2021UK-born 35% in 2051Foreign-born 65% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

emerging diversity: Low foreign-born share with significant ethnic diversity suggests second/third-generation growth is the primary driver. Less sensitive to immigration policy changes.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.5% moved within UK, 0.7% arrived from abroad
white other11.6% internal, 2% international
other10.8% internal, 2.2% international
black10.7% internal, 1.6% international
asian9.6% internal, 1.4% international
mixed10.1% internal, 0.5% international
white british6.1% internal, 0.3% international

Why Three Rivers is changing

-11.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
0pp
Local migration
-5.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Three Rivers on UK Demographics →