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East of England

Thurrock

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
James McMurdock
James McMurdockIndependent · South Basildon and East Thurrock

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Thurrock.

155 people on asylum support in Thurrock

Rank 151 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 8.53 per 10,000 puts Thurrock in the 59th percentile. That means a moderate load compared to the national picture. White British projected to be a minority by approximately 2034. 6 of them receive subsistence only and are not in Home Office accommodation. Accommodation and support for 155 people at £107 per person per day is about £6.1M a year.

What asylum costs Thurrock

£3.5Mestimated hotel costs/year
£396Ksubsistence payments/year
£186KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 155 people on asylum support in Thurrock(0.17% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Thurrock: asylum numbers still rising

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

175
3382251130Mar 2014Dec 2025Peak Jun 2023Rwanda schemeAlbania dealBibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Mar 201422
Jun 201430
Sept 201410
Dec 201415
Mar 201528
Jun 201532
Sept 201529
Dec 201539
Mar 201640
Jun 201638
Sept 201637
Dec 201637
Mar 201732
Jun 201733
Sept 201738
Dec 201765
Mar 201875
Jun 201874
Sept 201888
Dec 2018105
Mar 2019108
Jun 2019115
Sept 2019115
Dec 2019116
Mar 2020176
Jun 2020189
Sept 2020188
Dec 2020204
Mar 2021225
Jun 2021260
Sept 2021282
Dec 2021296
Mar 2022285
Jun 2022279
Sept 2022259
Dec 2022256
Mar 2023229
Jun 2023338
Sept 2023291
Dec 2023204
Mar 2024215
Jun 2024195
Sept 2024189
Dec 2024169
Mar 2025164
Jun 2025141
Sept 2025153
Dec 2025175

Trend

+22Latest quarter change
+153Change across series
48Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation149
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only6
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
155
Homes for Ukraine
453
Afghan programme
73
Resettlement cumulative
2

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine453
Afghan programme73
Resettlement cumulative2

Population context

All pathways total681
Share of local population0.37%

Ethnic composition projection

Thurrock: White British 66.2% (2021) to 29.3% (2051). White British minority by ~2034. 80% CI: 27.9, 33%.

Ethnic composition: Thurrock

021436486% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 20% in 2061White Other 22% in 2061Asian 16% in 2061Black 23% in 2061Mixed 12% in 2061Other 6% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Thurrock

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
81%
9%
2021
66%
11%
12%
2031proj
54%
15%
9%
16%
2041proj
41%
19%
11%
19%
2051proj
29%
21%
14%
22%
9%
2061proj
20%
22%
16%
23%
12%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Thurrock ranges from40.6% to 49.9%by 2051. That is a 9.3pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 44.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 5.2% (2021) → 35.5% (2051). Christian 54.5% → 14.5%.

Religion: Thurrock

015304560%Census 2021Christian 15% in 2051No religion 42% in 2051Muslim 36% in 2051Hindu 4% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionMuslimHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

21% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: diverse (entropy 0.62). 88.7% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Thurrock

1633506784%Census 2021UK-born 45% in 2051Foreign-born 55% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

established diversity: High foreign-born share means ethnic change is migration-driven. Future projections are sensitive to immigration policy.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.7% moved within UK, 0.6% arrived from abroad
white other13.2% internal, 2% international
other10.2% internal, 2.6% international
asian11.3% internal, 1.3% international
black9% internal, 1% international
mixed9.6% internal, 0.4% international
white british6.1% internal, 0.1% international

Why Thurrock is changing

-14.7pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-0.1pp
Local migration
-8.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: local migration. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Thurrock on UK Demographics →