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South East

Tonbridge and Malling

Updated 30 Jun 2026 · Home Office
Helen Grant
Helen GrantConservative · Maidstone and Malling

2 MPs cover constituencies in or overlapping Tonbridge and Malling.

9 people on asylum support in Tonbridge and Malling

Rank 305 of 361 councils nationally. The rate of 0.65 per 10,000 puts Tonbridge and Malling in the 14th percentile. That means fewer than most areas. Accommodation and support for 9 people at £107 per person per day is about £0.4M a year.

What asylum costs Tonbridge and Malling

£203Kestimated hotel costs/year
£23Ksubsistence payments/year
£11KLA dispersal grant/year

Estimates based on 9 people on asylum support in Tonbridge and Malling(0.01% of 93,293 nationally at 30 Jun 2026). Hotel costs pro-rated from £5.77M/day national spend in 2024/25 (House of Commons Library, CDP-2025-0184). Subsistence: £49.18/week per person.

Tonbridge and Malling: asylum numbers falling

Quarter-end stock series to Dec 2025. A rise or fall is a net change in the number of people on support at period end, not the number of new claims or distinct people moving through the caseload. Support stock also overlaps with, but is not identical to, the awaiting-decision backlog.

6
10730Sept 2023Dec 2025Peak Sept 2023Bibby StockholmRwanda scrapped
Exact values
PeriodValue
Sept 202310
Dec 20237
Mar 20247
Jun 20247
Sept 20247
Mar 20257
Jun 20257
Dec 20256

Trend

-1Latest quarter change
-4Change across series
8Official data points

Local numbers

Accommodation split

Dispersal accommodation9
Initial accommodation0
Subsistence only0
Contingency accommodation0

Pathway breakdown

Supported asylum
9
Homes for Ukraine
308
Afghan programme
6
Resettlement cumulative
44

Other routes

Homes for Ukraine308
Afghan programme6
Resettlement cumulative44

Population context

All pathways total323
Share of local population0.23%

Ethnic composition projection

Tonbridge and Malling: White British 88.4% (2021) to 75.6% (2051).

Ethnic composition: Tonbridge and Malling

024497397% of populationCensus 2021IllustrativeWhite British 69% in 2061White Other 10% in 2061Asian 5% in 2061Mixed 11% in 206120112021203120412051
White BritishWhite OtherAsianMixed 80% CI

Each line shows one ethnic group's share of the local population. The shaded band is the 80% confidence range. Values after 2051 are illustrative only.

Ethnic composition: Tonbridge and Malling

Census 2011, Census 2021, then Hamilton-Perry projections to 2051. Percentages.

2011
92%
2021
88%
2031proj
85%
2041proj
81%
2051proj
76%
8%
2061proj
69%
10%
11%
White BritishWhite OtherAsianBlackMixedOther
Model: Hamilton-Perry single-year CCRs, 1,000 Monte Carlo simulations, SNPP-constrained

Census 2011 to 2021 cohort change ratios. Shaded band = 80% confidence interval from stochastic perturbation. Not a forecast.

Scenario explorer

Under different assumptions, White British share in Tonbridge and Malling ranges from55.1% to 74.5%by 2051. That is a 19.4pp spread.

Fertility
Low~108k/yr
Principal~315k/yr
High~476k/yr
ConstantRates stay at current levels
Half convergenceMove halfway to national avg
Full convergenceConverge to national avg
Migration
Central scenario: WBI 62.2% by 2051

Religion projection

Muslim 1.1% (2021) → 2.4% (2051). Christian 51.6% → 11.0%.

Religion: Tonbridge and Malling

022446688%Census 2021Christian 11% in 2051No religion 83% in 2051Hindu 3% in 20512021203120412051
ChristianNo religionHindu

Religious affiliation projected from Census 2021 self-identification. Trends reflect demographic change in the existing population, not religious conversion.

Nativity

9% foreign-born (2021). Diversity: low diversity (entropy 0.29). 96.9% main language English.

UK-born vs foreign-born: Tonbridge and Malling

427507396%Census 2021UK-born 56% in 2051Foreign-born 44% in 20512021203120412051
UK-bornForeign-born

Share of the local population born outside the UK. Movement reflects both new arrivals and the UK-born children of existing residents reaching adulthood.

low immigration: Limited ethnic diversity. Projections primarily driven by national trends.

Census 2021 mobility: 7.9% moved within UK, 0.4% arrived from abroad
black16.1% internal, 1.2% international
other11.9% internal, 3.2% international
white other11.3% internal, 2.2% international
asian10.8% internal, 2.3% international
mixed10.6% internal, 0.9% international
white british7.5% internal, 0.2% international

Why Tonbridge and Malling is changing

-4.1pp
National trend
-6.4pp
Age structure
-1pp
Local migration
+3.3pp

White British change 2011-2021. Cyan = decline. Amber = growth.

Dominant driver: national trend. Shift-share methodology following Franklin (2014).

Full demographic profileSchool pressure, housing demand, service demand scoring, economic profile, language projections, and more on UK Demographics.View Tonbridge and Malling on UK Demographics →